Notice: Function _load_textdomain_just_in_time was called incorrectly. Translation loading for the restrict-user-access domain was triggered too early. This is usually an indicator for some code in the plugin or theme running too early. Translations should be loaded at the init action or later. Please see Debugging in WordPress for more information. (This message was added in version 6.7.0.) in /home1/portfol1/public_html/wp/wp-includes/functions.php on line 6114

Deprecated: Class Jetpack_Geo_Location is deprecated since version 14.3 with no alternative available. in /home1/portfol1/public_html/wp/wp-includes/functions.php on line 6114

Deprecated: preg_split(): Passing null to parameter #3 ($limit) of type int is deprecated in /home1/portfol1/public_html/wp/wp-content/plugins/add-meta-tags/metadata/amt_basic.php on line 118
Seminars | Portfolio Yoga

Seminars – A Shortcut to Trading Success?

Cutting Onions isn’t tough but one that leaves one teary eyed. Try cutting a few at a time and your eyes will hurt like hell. But, while that doesn’t stop one from using onions, one always wishes for a simpler way to cut onions without the attending irritation of the eyes.

In Exhibitions, one of the few hot selling items are tools that help in minimizing the work in the kitchen and this includes reducing the pain of onion cutting. Many years ago, we bought one such instrument – you kept the onion on a hard board, covered it with the onion chopper and one hard press was all it required to cut the veggie into small pieces. Of course, while they were able to chop the onions with ease in the Exhibition, the damm thing couldn’t do any such thing at home.

A search indicated one such item available even today at Amazon (Link)though it’s not surprising to see buyers being disappointed. Some things never change, no matter how many years go by.

With a booming or not so booming markets, depending on which segment of the markets you are trading, one of the newest yet oldest ways to make money off traders who would love to learn to trade has been in the field of education – seminars and such.

While there a few that are well worth the money, most are organized by people whose only claim to fame is on Social Media. Most of them never manage public money – legally at least, but are happy to showcase how easy it’s to make money and how you can do that by attending their session.

But is that really so easy and if so, have you ever wondered why people are happy to give out the secret for a few thousand bucks?

I haven’t attended any such seminar though one common thread I have found is that most of them aren’t based on Quants. When I say Quants, what I am really indicating are strategies that can be tried and tested using computers.

Trading can be and is generally done in two ways – discretionary approach and systematic approach and there are pro’s and con’s in both. There is no one way to Nirvana but if you are a starter in trading, there is no better way than to approach the markets systematically.

The biggest advantage of systematic trading is that you can test out your rules in the historical context to see if they provided any advantage before actually risking any real money in the markets. It also provides you the context that most discretionary traders work with anyways – they too are rules based, just that instead of having to feed into a system that churns out the signals, they are able to do it in their head or gut depending on what drives them better.

Unfortunately most educational based seminars are held by expert traders where they try to showcase how you can approach the markets like they do. The only problem with such an approach is that you lack the hundreds and thousands of hours they have spent looking at markets and digesting them.

Think it of like Chess – the Grandmasters out there don’t just think about the move ahead but are able to think of the impact of such moves on the next set of moves and the next set. If a Chess Master were to showcase his skills, you know a single path that worked for him for that particular game, but don’t know how and why he chose that particular move versus the alternatives available out there.

Same when it comes to trading – does the Indicator that gave a superb buy at the bottom work in all types of markets? Does it apply for only a certain index or can it be applied across indices and stocks? Does it… I do hope you got the gist here.

A few pre-selected trades rarely mean anything other than Selection Bias. For the indicator to have true value, the only way is if you can test it out rigorously without any biases creeping in. And that means, testing the same Quantitatively.

Books are cheaper than ever before, Information about markets and anything you would love to know about is available free of cost and yet, courses abound.

Courses, especially those concerning trading, are good assuming you are already experienced enough, but if you are a newbie, an 8 hour session will not take you any closer to your goal other than helping the organizer with his monthly target.

 

New age Gold Diggers

In the mid 18th Century, California experienced what is now known as the California Gold Rush. People converged from near and far to try and get rich quick. While the initial diggers made some money, the late arrivals barely eked out a living, let alone get rich. A allegory that is used to describe those who made money says that those who sold Shovels made more money that those who actually dug for the Gold.

While the stock markets aren’t a place for the easy money kind, it does attract investors who hope to make a killing buying stocks that are peddled by advisers with the promise of it being the next big thing. Investors subscribe to websites that claim to tell you what big investors are Buying / Selling and how by just following them, you too can make a fortune.

When mid and small caps were booming, we had big fund managers come on TV claiming to have bought what they claimed was stocks which were very under valued and were ripe for a revaluation. Momentum sellers showcased how their portfolio’s were able to buy only the best of the lot and profit from the rally we were seeing.

Its amusing (though having fallen myself more than once into such traps) as to how we believe that the experts who come on TV are there to educate the public rather than trying to ensure growth of their own services. Fund mangers have found TV to be the best medium to broadcast their views and become popular and more the popularity, higher their assets under management.

Advisers come on TV in the hope that you not just hear their views, but visit their website and subscribe to their products – products designed to make you a better investor / trader / Macro Analyst or whomever you want to be. The idea is that all you need to do is pay a few shillings and glorious days are here.

Of course given the fact that failure rate in markets are so high, most experience disappointment about losing more money than they bargained for and try to exit as quickly as possible. But the world being a large place, that place is occupied by the next sucker hoping to not do the wrongs did by the one who lost. But guess what, probability is that he too ends up in the same place as the earlier – maybe in a different way.

I have had the good fortune of being able to meet / interact / learn from quite a number of guys and guess what, none of these have anytime to run subscription services, let alone spend majority of the time shuttling between various television channels giving gyan to one and all.

These days, everything is for sale but none come without any assurance of profit. Tip sellers want you to risk real money first to pay them and next to invest on those stocks that they recommend. But ask about reversing the process and they want some sort of guarantee that you shall pay if it works.

At least in the Mutual fund space this seems to be changing with the arrival of new age distributors who provide you with the ability invest directly and who are willing to get paid for their advise only if they beat predetermined benchmarks. While we still do not have websites like Collective2, I do hope that we shall see something of that nature in a matter of time as investors and traders want more than just assurances of the stock picker really knowing his stuff.

But till that time happens, you are better off taking every claim with a bag of Salt and spend your hard earned money on things that are worthwhile (Books for instance) than fall prey to buying the latest shovels from the friendly guy next door.