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Portfolio Yoga - Part 7

Portfolio Management Services – understanding it better

At a time when Mutual Funds are seeing withdrawals, assets for Portfolio Management Service (PMS henceforth) are blooming. This even though Mutual Funds are better off when it comes to how one gets taxed as well as the fees. Mutual funds, even the active funds charge these days much lower than what the investor ends up paying at most portfolio management companies.

For the outsider – a Portfolio Management Service is very opaque. Maybe this is what gives them the edge – the exclusivity that investors demand after having achieved a certain level of financial well being. With the minimum investment of 50 Lakhs, its a signature investment of having arrived.

When SEBI introduced the concept of PMS, the spirit behind it was that high networth individuals would want to have professionally managed but personalized investment services. Before the arrival of rules, we did have brokers who acted as fund managers but without much oversight or transparency. 

Today there is very little personalization in reality with most fund managers offering the same model portfolio for all clients regardless of his or her requirements or risk tolerance. The only difference lies in their ability to have a higher concentration versus Mutual Funds.

The biggest bane for the HNI investor is that mutual fund managers are never available to speak to unless one is big enough to move the needle for the firm. On the other hand, many Portfolio Managers will be happy to meet investors and if the investor is big enough, willing to drive down to his place if required. Whoever said Money can’t buy everything evidently hasn’t worked in the financial services industry.

Analyzing a mutual fund is very easy. It’s easy to get access to the funds historical day to day returns, their monthly portfolio’s, the fund managers letters and ability to compare the fund with others in the same category using freely available screeners.

Analyzing a Portfolio Management Service on the other hand is so much harder. Almost all PMS companies are wary of any disclosure of the portfolio – not even the top holdings get disclosed. Returns on the website of the firms are generally (with exceptions) dated. 

Over a three year period, an investor could end up (markets being good and performance inline) paying the fund manager a few lakhs in fees. It hence makes sense to  invest some money and time to decide on whom to bet with and there is nothing like a good old one to one personal dialogue with the fund manager to convince you of the merits of your decision.

Websites like PMS Bazaar offer a way to compare multiple PMS providers but only if they have tied up with the company. As per a Business Line article, they have tied up with just around 100 firms which means that 250+ firms are outside their database. 

One can get the monthly returns from SEBI website where the same gets posted by the respective fund houses but until recently it was a single number regardless of the number of styles / strategies they were running. Also, did I mention the pain of trying to download data month on month for each fund house?

Returns of the past also need to be looked at with context of what is happening in the markets. In 2017, investors rushed to invest with small cap PMS funds only to get severely burnt as the markets rolled over.

Filtering down the list of suitable candidates with whom one wishes to invest is hard but essential for the next steps are time consuming. The key is to try and reduce the list of probable candidates to say 10 fund houses and then dig further.

So, how does one go about eliminating the funds one does not wish to invest into. For most investors, this process is by selecting only funds that are well known or have a large asset base or managed by a fund manager who they trust. 

This eliminates the majority but also eliminates good fund managers for the single reason that they haven’t grown big for their brand to be noticed. In the Mutual Fund space this doesn’t happen because of availability of data. 

Unlike Mutual Funds, we don’t have comprehensive data on how much of inflow is due to push sales and how much due to pull. While PMS is supposed to be for the discerning investor, there are still a lot of push based sales where the client takes the advice of the seller in deciding which fund he shall invest into. 

In its early days, PMS was sold only by Wealth Management Firms for their clients. Today selling PMS is something that is undertaken by a whole gamut of individuals. Then again, while one shall get  around 0.75% for selling a Mutual Fund, the fee a distributor gets for selling a PMS is much more liberal (some PMS share even the performance fee with the distributor who brought the client).

With minimum investing being 50 Lakhs (some PMS have a higher minimum), this for most would be a substantial investment. An investor faces two risks with any investment – the risk of an actual capital loss and the risk of an opportunity cost.

The risk of actual realized losses is easily spotted, tougher is to spot the opportunity cost. Benchmarking is one way to spot the opportunity cost. Beware though of using the wrong benchmarks for they can make an old person look young.

The best benchmark is not the Index but Mutual Funds. This is because other than for Large Caps, the other Indices suffer from a bias where their best stocks get removed frequently and thus limits their upside. The only stocks that are removed from Nifty 50 or Nifty 100 on the other hand are those that aren’t performing.

With very little if any disclosure of portfolio holdings, the next best step when it comes to analyzing a fund manager are his public writings – do note that not every fund manager writes a monthly or even a quarterly letter to clients and one that is provided to the public. 

To understand a company, the key is to go through a few years of Annual Reports. Similarly, one would need to go through a few years of the letters. The idea is to get an understanding of the philosophy of the fund manager  

The reason to read is that the investor would want to have a long association with the fund manager and that can only happen if the philosophy he talks about appeals to him. While returns are important, given the lumpiness of returns, the ability to stick with the fund manager during the bad times helps take advantage when the tide turns in favor of the strategy of the fund manager.

To better understand how lumpy returns can be, here is an example. A large PMS fund at the end of May 2020 had a 4 year CAGR of -1.60%. The CAGR at the end of May 2021 comes to 15%. 4 frustrating years were offset by one good year.

The only way to stay with the fund manager after seeing multiple years of gains being wiped out is only by having conviction both in the fund manager and the strategy he is implementing. 

Not all PMS’s can be compared for their universe could be different. While the majority of PMS go for the Multicap universe, some PMS restrict themselves to Large Cap or Small Cap. This is an important distinction.

Size Factor is a phenomenon where it is observed that mid and small cap firms in the long haul have a tendency to outperform large cap. This outperformance comes from the portfolio’s being more risky in nature and the rewards if captured are a prize for taking those risks.

While Mutual Funds are forced by law to be more diversified – Concentrated Portfolios is the biggest differentiation for PMS. Concentration in itself doesn’t mean a higher risk though the volatility would be higher. 

Finally, the elephant in the room is fees. Today, an investor can get an Index fund that costs as low as 0.20% of  investment. Active funds but Directly invested by the investor would end up being charged 1% approximately.

PMS follow 3 different styles of charging to clients. 

  1. Fixed Fee Only: The fund manager here charges a fixed fee on the total assets managed and the calculation is similar to how it is calculated and charged at Mutual Funds. This ranges from anywhere between 1% to 2.5% of your assets. 

The biggest advantage of a flat fee – it’s clean and easy know what one shall pay 

  1. Performance Fee Only: Rather than charging a fixed fee, some PMS firms offer to charge the investor a fee if they deliver above a certain hurdle rate. From the limited data I have, I have seen this hurdle rate being 6%. Given that until recently you could get 6% from a Risk Free Investment, this hurdle was in effect saying that if I don’t outperform the risk free, I don’t get paid. The way it’s calculated is that if a fund generates say 12% returns for the year, for an investment of 1 Crore and a performance fee of say 20% above 6%, you will pay 1.2 Lakhs (which is equivalent to a fixed fee of 1.2%).

The reasoning behind charging only a performance fee is to suggest that the fund manager will get paid only if he delivers for the client. While on the surface it seems logical, do note that in the long term, an Index fund has on an average delivered 12% returns. 

Lower the hurdle rate, higher the fee the investor will end up paying. In good years like FY 2020 – 21 when Nifty went up 66%, the fee would come to 12 Lakhs( or 7.2% of the total current value of the fund – post 66% appreciation on an investment of 1 Crore). This of course assumes you invested on April 1, 2020. 

While the investor will not pay any performance pay till the high water mark, if he were to exit during a drawdown, the investor would have ended up paying more than what he may have paid using the simple fixed fee route.

  1. Fixed Fee plus Performance Fee: Finally, there are funds that charge you both a fixed fee and a performance fee. The hurdle rates here are a bit higher but not that high that makes it tough to generate any performance fee in the long run. 

While this is how most Hedge Funds charge their clients, this is also in a way trying to maximize revenue for the fund manager at the expense of the client. In a good year like the one just gone by, the fee would easily be multi year fees for any active mutual fund. 

Performance fee in my opinion should be calculated on the Alpha generated over and above the opportunity cost. The opportunity cost would be what one would have chosen as an alternative investment. But there is no such model available as far as my knowledge.

In addition to the fees, PMS also passes on all incidental expenses that are directly relatable to your account such as Broking, Demat, custody etc. This can easily come to 0.4% and something to keep note of.

For the investor, the biggest difference is how one gets taxed with respect to gains. If one is investing for the really long term, say Retirement Goal, with a Mutual Fund one pays Zero taxes as long as one remains invested. In a PMS, it’s normal for the investor in a PMS to regularly pay capital gains taxes on profits books by the fund manager.

Depending on the holding period of the fund manager, this can dampen the returns substantially if there is a high degree of churn. It goes unnoticed for most until the time to pay the tax arises. But in a good year, one is already happy and he or she is unlikely to complain with respect to paying taxes for the investment has grown substantially too.

The biggest advantage of PMS is the transparency (once you are a client) with respect to transactions. You get to know each and every transaction which while may not be really useful in the larger framework , it can provide you inputs on the thought process of the fund manager.

Once upon a time, Stock Brokerage was a personalized business which allowed the broker to charge you 2.5% and then some more and yet have the client not complain. Technology rudely awakened that Brokerage is finally no different from any other commodity business and the friction costs have reduced to Zero.

With the advent of more low cost ETFs that cover a gamut of strategies and tech enabled platforms, my view is that managing one’s one money based on one’s own convictions will become easier. While managing money may never become a commodity business, over time fees should go down from what is seen as acceptable today.

A new concept that is picking up in the US is “Custom Indexing”.An interesting concept where the advisor or his client has the ability to modify the portfolio to suit their custom requirements. Patrick O’Shaughnessy has a podcast which is worth a listen (Link). 

FAQ on PMS by SEBI 

Portfolio Yoga Monthly Newsletter May 2021

What makes a Great Fund Manager?.

How to spot a good fund manager was a question asked at a Twitter Spaces event. This was a question that Swarup Mohanty answered. I wish I could understand the answer he gave, but I don’t know Oriya :). What I could understand about the answer he gave was to forget about Fund Managers and focus on the Advisor.

If you were to dig down the reasons , the answer appears simple. Recognition for a fund manager has less to do with his philosophy. Or how erudite he is but more to do with his or her past returns. Period.
Beating the market is the prime criteria to be get judged by history as a great fund manager. The moment you stop beating, critics latch on to you. So, Warren Buffett with one of the longest period of performance has become a good guy to hit at.

https://twitter.com/stoolpresidente/status/1270350291653791747?lang=en


Dave Portnoy called him a washed up Investor. But this is not a fringe opinion (Dave Portnoy for instance has 2.5 Million followers on Twitter). The worst performing Indian mutual fund outperformed Warren Buffett in dollar terms by over four times in the past 17 years remarked Nilesh Shah a while back.

An old saying suggests that a movie star is as good as his last few pictures. This is something that is applicable from Sports to Movies to Markets. You are only as good as your last trade.

Last year we saw some interesting funds register astonishing returns. Quant Small Cap fund for instance has a one year return of 200%+. The funds asset under management today is low (268 Crores). It should be interesting to observe how their AUM moves if they can deliver good performance. Even if they aren’t able to repeat the blockbuster performance of 2020 – 21, process is the key.

The current hot fund manager of the moment is Rajeev Thakkar. PPFAS has been consistent in both process and returns for a long time now. Their fame though has shot up in recent times. The 10-year track record of PPFAS Long Term Equity Fund is now the best among all multi-cap funds.

In 2018, I attended the Morningstar Investment Conference in Mumbai. While a lot of unknown but famous RIA’s got mobbed around during the session breaks, Rajeev was standing with a colleague of his at the corner with none to hound.

Despite being an introvert, I introduced myself and had a couple of minutes of general talk with him. Today I am sure he will get surrounded by investors who wish to know what the future of the market is. Whether investing in the US which is one of the current rages, will continue to hold or not for example.

Business Channels love speaking to fund managers but unfortunately big mutual fund managers are generally very busy to give them the bites they are looking for. We have a good ecosystem of Portfolio Managers who most of the time wear the cap of not just the Chief Investment Officer but the Chief Marketing Officer willing to spare time as often as possible.

But with 350+ portfolio management firms and around 500 managers, you have plenty of options. Business Channels love hedgehogs more than the foxes (Link if you are wondering what is the connection between the two).

Business Channels love fund managers whose strategy is not only hot at the moment but where the fund manager has the ability to mesmerize their viewers. Interviews are generally softball questions with any data that points out to the silliness getting rejected without a second thought.

The moment that trend fades away, the channels have no qualms about dropping him like a hot potato and moving from a fund manager who loves shitty companies to a fund manager who thinks investing in quality regardless of valuation as the way to go.

As an investor, your best returns are when the fund manager is unknown. When Peter Lynch took over the Fidelity Magellan fund, he was an unknown manager who got entrusted with a 20 million dollar close ended fund.

By the end of 5 years though he had shown his mettle with his CAGR return being 35% vs the S&P 500’s return for the same period of 2.70%. The fund was then opened to fresh subscriptions and over time the AUM soared to the extent that when he finally exited in 1990, the AUM was to the tune of 20 Billion.

The performance for the years when it was open is a CAGR of 21.80% versus market return of 11.70%. A hefty outperformance indeed but not as much as his first few years. This is true for almost every fund manager out there – the bane of a successful fund manager it seems is he getting discovered by the masses.

But how do you go about finding those successful diamonds when they are still pretty much rough and undiscovered. Compared to the past, today fund managers are way better prepared when it comes to communication skills to the extent that talking to the fund manager can be a misrepresentation of who he really is.

In markets tops are tough to predict, predicting bottoms are a lot easier. This is because while the market can be irrational when it comes to how high it can go, it’s not that irrational to keep going lower and the bottom is closer than what many actually fear.

When it comes to fund managers, it’s easier to know who will not be the best of the performers for the future. But way tougher to catch the best performer of the future before they became the best.
If you have invested in a fund manager who today is hot, would that mean its better to exit the fund. While my guess is as good as yours, hot fund managers future returns generally are not be like the past. This is more evident if the fund added dollops of new assets under management.

Cathie Wood has a wonderful long term track record. But only in recent months that she came to become the messiah of the masses. Be it Crypto, Tesla and other hot stocks, she is the go to fund manager.
Assets under Management spiraled higher. This created a need for to her to chase stocks at prices she may in the past may not have been comfortable with. Since February of this year, the fund is down 30%. To give a perspective – the fund faced a 42% draw-down during the market meltdown of March 2020).
Nothing destroys returns like amassing of assets.

This has been true for both fund managers and advisors. In a way, it’s a dilemma for if you become too famous, you end up with substandard returns for your clients. But if you don’t become famous, does the world even care about the returns you generated for your clients?

This month I had a talk with good friends Anish Teli and Pravin Palande on the topic of Tail Risk Investment. You can watch it here

The hot topic for the month has to be Crypto and the volatility we saw there. What I learned recently was that Crypto has 1.5 Crore traders . This is huge given that this compares to around 3 Crore Individual Mutual Fund investors. Then again, the number could be a hyperbole for I am not sure if there is a trustable source.

I have been a listener at a Club House discussion on Crypto vs Stocks and what is astonishing was that even though some of the speakers are well versed in Crypto, there is still confusion on what Bitcoin actually represents. Is it a Currency, Is it an Asset, Is it a transitory investment.

In a Club House meet where I was a speaker, we wondered about whether investing in Bitcoin type of assets will qualify as a tail risk investment. Currently investing in Crypto is hard compared to Equity investing. A firm in the US seems to want to make it easy by having a Bitcoin ETF and since Elon’s tweet about Energy Consumption being negative, this will be ESG certified as well.

While I may not invest in a crypto asset, ESG or not, what is interesting is how the purely belief holds up the system – belief in the bigger fool theory.

An investor who is buying a Dogecoin is not buying because he thinks it’s a good investment to own that will generate cash flows but because he believes that some time down the road he will find someone who will pay him more versus what he himself paid for it.

In 1996, Alan Greenspan coined the term Irrational exuberance. Nasdaq was at 1300. Nasdaq peaked in 2000 at 5140. While it did come back to 1300 twice (once in 2002 and once in 2009), it’s hard to say that he was right in calling the bubble. He was way too early and anyone who sold on his call did not get a chance to buy at much lower prices.

I don’t know how Bitcoin or any of the other coins will move but they seem sure to stay around us for a long time to come.

Building Wealth by Moderating Expectations

I recently stumbled upon a PMS that takes in their clients based on reference from people they already know. In a world where PMS managers are happy to give up as much as 100% of their first year fees in an attempt to get a client, this to me was astonishing. 

As I read more about them and also interacted with someone who knows them better, I understood that the reason lay in wanting to be sure the client understood and was aligned with their thought process.

When Warren Buffett started out forming his Partnership’s, he partnered with folks who I assume he knew enough. Even his reluctance to split his stock which recently exceeded the maximum digits Nasdaq system allowed comes from wanting to have shareholders who are  interested in long-term plays, who have extended investment horizons

Advisory is a tough field. Most advisors end up losing 50% or more of their clients every year and to just stay where you are one needs to keep adding more clients. Of course, like equity one has lumpy years like the one we are seeing today where the growth becomes lumpy and huge but they in my opinion are more one off. 

The reason is simple – most clients start out with the wrong expectations and when the expectations aren’t met, the thought is that it’s the failing of the advisor. In a way, the advisor has failed too because he / she was unable to provide a perspective on what to expect. 

Once in a while I get a call from a prospective client who wishes to sign up but isn’t really sure. The noise around Momentum in the last few months has meant that there is this assumption or unstated fact that you are missing out on something if you aren’t invested in a Momentum portfolio.

Nothing could be further from the truth and yet this silliness keeps going on everytime we have a good time with a strategy. ContrarianEPS had written this tweet a few years back 

Between 2018 to Mid 2020 (for almost everyone), there wasn’t much interest in Momentum even though the number of advisors continued to climb higher. The key reason for the lack of interest was the continued underperformance of the strategy vs the broader index – Nifty 50 / Sensex.

This changed in 2020 not because the strategy was bound to do well after such a long period of underperformance but basically because the market as a whole took off. Between April 1 2020 to March 31 2021, we had 460 stocks that doubled, 157 stocks that tripled, 72 stocks that quadrupled and the list goes on. This list of course is constrained to only NSE listed stock. BSE has a much bigger number. A 100% or more on a portfolio based on such data doesn’t really appear out of the world.

In his book, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, Burton Malkiel wrote “A blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper’s financial pages could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by experts. Well, last year, you could have just used a dart and come out as well as most of us Momentum Investors.

Since the Federal Reserve started its quantitative easing in 2008, life has never been better. Yes, there was 2011 and then again there was 2020 but every fall has made it seem like all it requires to be successful is stay invested and voila you get paid for the risk you haven’t taken.

While I am not a fan of looking at backtests in isolation, backtests provide a perspective that is not available elsewhere. From the kind of draw-down you should expect to how the strategy behaves in different environments, everything is out there for analysis. Yet, the focus generally comes down to Returns.

Momentum being a factor of the market cannot outperform the market itself. What happens post years like 2008 for example is hardly discussed or debated. The assumption for most part is that Momentum will escape some amount of damage by going into cash early.

While limiting drawdowns is nice, the question is how long it would take for real gains to accrue. My own back-test shows a CAGR return of 7% for the period from 1st January 2008 to 3st December 2013. That is 5 years during which the 30 stock portfolio bought and sold approximately 210 stocks. 

Most Indices did not even generate positive returns for the same period and in that sense Momentum definitely outperformed. If I fine tune the strategy, I may even get a higher number but I would be cheating no one but myself.

Value, Quality or Momentum are all good factors to be invested into. But real wealth is mostly accumulated through either Inheritance or Income from Salary / Business. Returns start making sense only after a long period of time. 

There was this quote that went around some time back 

Buffett made 95% of his wealth after the age of 65.

The statement is true though it ignores that by age of 65, he was really really Wealthy. That base and the continued high returns allowed him to grow his wealth even further. Without that base, he would have been one of the many fund managers who came and went.

Direct Investing can lead to better returns than what the market delivers but there is a trade off. First, there is a risk that you shall have a worse return too and second it requires a commitment in terms of time for both understanding as well as learning. 

Being prepared for the second is the key to success in markets for time is the greatest inhibitor to investment success. As I was writing this, a substack that came into my inbox had this data

“over $8 billion of leveraged collateral was liquidated from more than 775,000 traders by decentralized and centralized lenders”

This from the crypto markets which saw huge swings in the last few days. Basically nearly 8 Lakh trader accounts got liquidated because the accounts weren’t prepared to handle the volatility (and one which was not really out of the world for this has happened way too often in the world of Crypto). For many of these traders, it doesn’t matter if Bitcoin goes back to 100K, they don’t stand to gain anything.

From Mutual Funds to Advisory, the behavioral gap is well known and yet is the biggest stumbling block for most investors. The key reason to me is not because investors wish to chase returns (some do) but more so because the reality is different from the expectation they were sold into.

As Rudyard Kipling wrote, If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, success in markets is guaranteed. Else we become the collateral damage that is counted in number and not names.

Introducing a Quality Portfolio

To maximize return, the focus of any investor should be on a single factor, be it Momentum, Value or Quality. But the risk of a single factor is high in the sense that one can go through long periods of under-performance before seeing the light of the day.

Internationally, the accepted norm for advisors is to minimize that risk by having a multi factor approach. More diversified the portfolio is, the smoother the returns will be. For large accounts, advisors recommended exposure to more investments such as Gold or Trend Following to reduce the net volatility of the portfolio. 

Of course, nothing is free and the cost of spreading across does mean a slightly lower return but if that comes at the cost of a better sleep, it’s any day better than losing sleep but ultimately getting a high return especially if you are not prepared mentally for the risks.

When we started off with Momentum Portfolio, we made a promise that in addition to Momentum at some point of time we would be providing a Coffee Can style high quality stock portfolio. Today we are delivering on the said promise.

The concept of Coffee Can Strategy goes back to 1984 when Robert Kirby wrote a paper titled The Journal of Portfolio Management. Yet, in India, we owe the familiarity of the strategy to Saurabh Mukherjea when he first wrote the book The Unusual Billionaires in 2016. 

Since then, Saurabh has been a strong supporter of the said strategy while laid down very simply asks you to build a portfolio of stocks that carry two characteristics. As he writes in his book and I quote,

Thus, my stock-selection filters are companies that deliver revenue growth of 10 per cent and ROCE of 15 per cent every year for the past ten years.

When I first stumbled upon the strategy thanks to the book, I was impressed because here lay a simple strategy that had in the past delivered a return better than a benchmark but also one that seemed logically sound. 

Most Analysts and Fund Managers try to make it seem like their process is ultra complex. From trying to figure out the management quality to understanding the company better than the company’s own management.

It’s not that there is no value in trying to determine how good or bad a management is but it’s easy to get misled for we are finally humans and gullible in nature. The reason guys like Madoff or Ramalinga Raju were able to do what they did for so long has more to do with not their own abilities as sales guys but also the fact that most of us want to look at things from a positive spirit.

Buying good companies and holding them for long is the long and short of the Coffee Can Strategy.  In many ways, if you were to read between the lines of any fund manager, this is what the aim ultimately is. 

While most retail investors try to chase the next best thing, fund managers continue to bet on what worked in the past in anticipation of them working in the future as well. HDFC Bank was a well known wealth generator in 2010 which at that point of time its 10 year returns were to the tune of  20% at the beginning of that year. Today, its 10 year return stands at 20%. 

Yet, most investors will rather chase the next HDFC Bank (the current fancy being IDFC Bank) than buy HDFC Bank. As Charlie Munger says, 

Avoiding Stupidity is Easier than Seeking Brilliance

and yet, we seek brilliance by attempting to find the next best stock. Not that it really matters when it comes to final returns for very few will wish to bet on the next best stock a substantial amount of money, but always nice to claim as having identified it – maybe even before the promoters knew about it themselves.

While the basic idea for the portfolio has been borrowed from the Coffee Can strategy laid out by Saurabh, it’s not the same implementation. I have made some slight changes based on my understanding of the strategy as also the portfolio being more diverse than what is generally advertised. As the above Charlie Munger quote says, we are here not to seek Brilliance but avoiding stupidity and a diversified portfolio is a hedge against our stupidity in ways more than one.

Not every stock out there would be a winner but I strongly believe that the portfolio as a whole would give decent long term returns to the investor. 

The portfolio has no cap on Individual sector weights though it is nicely spread across with a larger weight in two focus sectors – Tech and Pharma. 

We expect very little churn in the portfolio in line with the basic strategy of Coffee Can which is to buy and  hold for a decade. Yet, this is not a copy of the Marcellus Portfolio {last time they disclosed the same, these were the constituents}. Do note that there is a slight amount of discretion in the portfolio that can be alluded to us.

https://twitter.com/Prashanth_Krish/status/1365903371790520323

For a while, Quality stocks have been richly valued compared to peers. The premium for quality is not going to go out even though we may see a period of flat returns which generally allow for the excess valuations to dissipate. 

The risk at the current stage as far as my observation and understanding goes is with respect to flat returns. But most of these companies have showcased excellent growth in the past and the business model is sufficient tuned to continue to grow in the future as well

The portfolio comes at no additional cost to existing or new subscribers. If you have any questions, do mail me or DM me on Twitter 

Recommended Reads:

The Unusual Billionaires 

Book Review: Richer, Wiser, Happier

One common thread among great investors who get featured in books is the fact that almost every one of them got rich by managing other people’s money for a fee that allowed their own capital to expand over time.

William Green in his recent book has written about the process of some well known fund managers and a couple of not so well known fund managers. What appealed to me was that this work did not come out after one year of extensive reaching out to fund managers but something the Author has done over 20 years and more and it shows in the depth he is able to go into.

The commonality I could find among all of them,

Most fund managers, featured here or otherwise, are generally rich enough to not worry about where their next meal is coming from. They continue to manage funds though not because the next million dollars they earn will change how they live (though it doesn’t harm to have a few million dollars more) but because they like the challenge that the market throws at them. This quote from another book, The Money Game puts that into perspective

Almost everyone, other than John Templeton advise that while they have achieved greatness through active investing, an ordinary investor is better off with just an Index fund. Given that these guys are the cream of the fund managers society, this showcases their belief of how tough it is for a small investor to be able to generate returns that are greater than what could be achieved much easily by way of a low cost Index fund.

Keeping costs low is another piece of advice and one that goes well along with Index funds. Yet, costs are the most ignored aspect by a lot of investors. Mutual Funds are seen as Expensive while Advisors are seen as cheap while it’s actually the other way for most small investors.

Interesting Trivia: Joel Greenblatt started Gotham Capital in 1989. After 5 years in running, the fund returned half the investor’s money, at 10 it gave back in full, preferring to manage their own fortunes. With a 50% CAGR during the first 10 years of operation, the performance fee would have added up to a capital the partners would have felt sufficient to trade / invest on their own without having to be answerable to anyone else.

Likewise is the emphasis on Risk Control. As McLennana says,

The future is “intrinsically uncertain” that investors should focus heavily on avoiding permanent losses and building “a portfolio that can endure various state of the world ”

Of course, it’s not that they all believe in similar things. Mohnish Pabrai follows and believes in the art of holding a concentrated position in line with his guru Charlie Munger. McLennana on the other hand believes that concentration enhances risks and would rather be well diversified. His fund has a portfolio of around 140 stocks. 

The chapter “High Performance Habits” could have been a book in itself. While there is the tendency to boost things and the small thing about only winners being profiled, it still showcases what it takes to win in the competitive world of investment management.

If you are looking to learn something new, you may be disappointed but the book is an attempt at reemphasizing what many a time we know in our hearts but one that we tend to ignore when the sentiments of the crowd start to crowd out our thoughts. The book is dense at times, but well worth the time spent.

Overall I would rate the book 4 out of 5. A worthy read for both new and experienced investors. 

Amazon Link: Richer, Wiser, Happier: How the World’s Greatest Investors Win in Markets and Life

The Rush to become a Mutual Fund

The big news today is that Groww is acquiring the Mutual Fund business of India Bulls. A few days back, NJ India got SEBI in-principle approval for their Mutual Fund License. Another 7 applications are queued up at SEBI.

There was a time in the past when everyone wanted to become a Stock Broker. I think I myself was influenced by those times because despite not understanding the business, I aspired to become one.

In 1996, the BSE Membership Card made an all time high of 4.11 Crore when a defaulters Membership card was auctioned off. This is a record that will stand in time. Today, you can become a member of the BSE by depositing a comparatively lower amount and one that is actually refundable. 

While the Indian Mutual fund revolution started nearly 30 years back with the entry of private sectors to a sector that till then was the exclusive domain of UTI, the number of funds have stayed more or less stagnant for a long time.

This won’t be the case any longer though with SEBI revising rules that allow for the ability to start a Mutual Fund and one that has attracted a lot of new participants. My guess is that by the end of this decade, we should be having more than 100 Mutual Fund houses.

Starting a Portfolio Management Service (also called PMS) today calls for a minimum financial commitment of 6 Crores at the start. The business becomes worthwhile once you cross the magic 100 Crore in Assets. 

Mutual Funds on the other hand require (based on the kind of application they are submitting) anything between 60 to 110 Crores. I would guess that with no profit sharing option unlike PMS, the breakeven will be way above 1000 Crores in Assets.  

Players who are small and unable to get to that kind of assets will either have to be subsidized for a long time by their investors or will sell out to stronger players like what has happened with IndiaBulls.

The key to getting to breakeven territory is two fold – performance and distribution strength. Remember that even today 80% of the mutual fund flows come through distributors and while performance can help, as we have seen in the case of Quantum (when it was one of the best performers), without distribution, it’s hard to scale.

So, why the rush you may ask.

Being a broker in the past meant being part of an exclusive club. Even today, there are just a few thousand brokers for a country of a Billion+. Getting to become a PMS means an even exclusive club that has just around 250+ members. Mutual Fund is the cream in that sense – you are right at the top of the food chain.

What helps also is the fact that the interest in equity is slowly growing and the percentage of savings that go into equity today is very low. So, there is huge growth opportunity that is available for those who are able to capture the trends

The biggest advantage for Mutual Funds is that they allow their investors to compound their money for a longer period of time without having to pay taxes for the gains that are booked inside the fund. Given that generating Alpha is so tough, this really adds value when you are looking at a very long term time horizon.

From the Investors point of view, more may be better when it comes to Fees. Right now, Fees have dropped not because Mutual funds were generous but because it came ordained from the Regulator. More competition would hopefully lead to an even lower fee structure than what we see today.

April 2021 Newsletter: The Urge to Predict

We say we don’t like to predict but every day prediction is what most of us end up doing. Is the market too high, Is the market going to crash, Is the RBI or the Fed going to raise Interest Rates, Is the price of Crude going to pull Inflation higher, Is … the questions never end.

When things start to do way too well, there is this lingering fear that the judgement day is not too far away. Markets for most part have been incredibly well and even that would be an understatement of sorts. 

S&P 500 for instance had a one year return of 61.50% (as of April 2021). This is the second highest one year return from any starting point it had seen since its inception. The largest one year return came post the 2008 crash (66.60% As of March 2010).

Market falls of the past were seen as shaking off the weak long position holders as well as clearing dead wood. Investors used to panic and sell out at lows only to see the markets climb back again. But for a moment there, investors were happy to have bailed out of their positions even with incredibly large losses. 

Today, Investors are so well educated that rather than jump out during market crashes, they jump in even more. Berkshire Hathaway meeting these days witness Millions log in live to hear two grandpas speak about Investing. The cult of long term investing that has been endearing to say the least. 

Stocks have been going up for so long that an idea has taken shape that if you are willing to hold on for long enough, you shall be profitable. But stocks don’t go up one way all the time. We climb up mountains, we climb down mountains and in between spend time in the valley’s.

While the number of Covid Cases and deaths continue to climb up, the markets too continue to move higher. This discrepancy is explained off by saying that markets are looking at the future and not the present or the past and in a way this is indeed true.

But the question is how far into the future is the market discounting.  Start discounting too far and you have too many edge cases that can derail the excel formulas that run many of these models. 

From the US to India, we are seemingly headed higher in terms of inflation. How high is too high before the Fed or the RBI starts stepping to stem the wave before it becomes a tsunami that is impossible to control?

From the low’s of 2016, the Nifty Small Cap 100 Index went up 130% over the next 2 years. From the low’s of March of last year, the same Index has gone up 170% in a span of just around 14 months. 

Some of this can be explained that unlike in 2016 where the Index had come out of a long time based correction but one that did not really hit big on the prices, this time around, we had seen both time and price correction (2018 to 2020) and hence even though the rise seems too much, it’s still well within reason.

Narratives generally color our ability to form a conclusive opinion. Snowflake, a US listed stock for instance, got played up on its IPO debut since it had an investment from the Legendary investor Warren Buffett. Today when it’s down  50% from the peak and back to where it opened at, none seem to harbor any remembrance. 

We have seen that in India too when prominent Investors are seen as applying or holding stocks that are coming up with an IPO. Personally I would say give an IPO stock a year before taking a call on whether it’s worth investing for many a time the strong balance sheets become weak very soon after its IPO. 

But back to the question – why are the markets heading higher even as uncertainty pervades. I found this quote from the book (More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom In Unconventional Places  by  Michael J. Mauboussin

The practical difference between . . . risk and uncertainty . . . is that in the former the distribution of the outcome in a group of instances is known . . . while in the case of uncertainty, this is not true . . . because the situation dealt with is in high degree unique.

 —Frank H. Knight, Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit

I think this explains why the market behaved in the way it did in March 2020 when we had barely any cases of Covid versus how it’s behaving today. March 2020 was a time of uncertainty that was unique and never experienced before, today it’s a risk we know that at best will be offset over time.

Momentum has been extremely strong. My own returns for the month of April were the second best since I started out in May 2017. Stocks that were Value a few months back are today part of Momentum Portfolios This is dangerous territory for like a rubber band, if it’s stretched too far on one side, the only outcome is that it will lash back angrily. Yet, are we really too one sided?

Every bull market is different and Every crash is different. When we were trading in the dot com bubble, it’s not that most of us were immune to the valuation or the risks but a narrative of “this time is different ” was enough to make most investors want to get onto the infotech bandwagon.

In 2007, while it was housing in the US, in India it was Infrastructure and Real Estate that were the primary drivers of the narrative of a new India. 12 years later the Nifty Real Estate Index is still 43% below its peak of 2008. 

Having said that, I am yet to see any reason to be fearful of the markets. While the large cap Index itself has gone nowhere since the beginning of this year, we are seeing some really good results when it comes to individual stocks in sectors that are hot at the moment. Breadth of the markets is as good as you can get indicating that the bull market is broad and not limited to a few individual stocks.

I surmise that the first leg of a bull market is always difficult to digest for there are multiple reasons that seem to suggest that there is something wrong with the markets. All indications are we are currently seeing one such run. A fall I would seek as more of an opportunity than an indication of a total reversal of gains we have lodged until date. 

Regardless of where the market is going to go, the Virus seems to have decided to stay for now. Be Safe and Get Vaccinated at the earliest.  

Book Reco: One of the better AutoBiographies I read this month was that of Robert Souk. Starting his life as a Rice Merchant who later in life was a well known Sugar Trader (trading in future while at the same time diversifying to both growing Sugarcane as well as having his own Sugar factories), his biggest achievement would probably be the establishment of Shangri-La Hotels & Resorts. Starting from nowhere, it’s impressive that today they  own and/or manage over 100 hotels and resorts throughout Asia Pacific, North America, the Middle East and Europe. 

Amazon Link: Robert Kuok: A Memoir