Portfolio Yoga - Part 28

Momentum Investing – Sin or Strategy

Ambhimanyu, the son of Arjuna had knowledge of entering the Chakravyuha but not the knowledge of coming out. This ended up with him getting killed and while the story being one of good and bad tries to magnify how the bad came together to kill him, the point that is missed is that he knew when we went in that he did not know the way out.

Investors in markets are in many a way Ambhimanyu’s . They know how to enter and hope that somehow they can exit before getting killed. But then again, the bad guys (Brokers, Operators, FII’s) all gang up and kill the poor little investor and snatch his monies.

Momentum Investing has its non-believers but I was kind of astonished to see that in a Document brought out by the Library of Congress whose ideas seem to be subscribed by the SEC (US Equivalent of India’s SEBI), one of the 9 sins they lay out which derail investors is “Momentum Investing”

The biggest misconception in my opinion about investing is that the style is seen to be dictated by the price move rather than knowledge of the style. Just like buying a stock that is falling doesn’t make one a Value Investor and Buying a stock that is going up doesn’t make one a Momentum Investor though it may seem to be very close to the idea.

The key to success in Momentum Investing is not about Entry but about Exits. A Momentum Investor exits a stock that stops seeing positive momentum – whether this is temporary or permanent is time will tell.

A common misconception is that Momentum Investing is about buying stocks regardless of whether they are fundamentally strong or not. But the irony is that rather than we being the deciders on whether a company is good or not, we allow the other participants through their actions dictate whether a stock A is good or not. What could be more democratic an idea than that?

I am a momentum investor and yet there are quite a few stocks that are having the strongest momentum yet not part of my portfolio. Momentum Investing doesn’t need to be about just blindly buying stocks that have gone up the most.

Look at the table below – these are stocks that have the best “Momentum Score” if you used a long term look back. If your portfolio has such stocks, are you a Value / Growth Investor or a Momentum Investor?

Predictive Value of Historical Returns in Mutual Funds

Social Media has been a great leveler of things. While getting opinions of a dozen people in real life can be tremendously tough, thanks to Social Media, you know have the opportunity to tap into the opinions of thousands by the mere click of a button.

Polls have always been used to understand and bring out the view of the crowd where the majority may not always be easily distinguishable. The risk though is one of sample size and the kind of people who are surveyed.

As Election Surveys / Polls have shown, it’s never about how many people you polled but the diversity among them that counts and the weights you give to factor in biases that this selective population may have brought about into the poll – knowingly or unknowingly.

A few months earlier, I ran a poll on Twitter (where else can you can get so easy a access to so many smart and sophisticated investors) regarding what drove them to invest in Mutual Funds. The vast majority was inclined to Returns.

Post that poll, I wrote a post Chasing Performance & Behavior Gap. Yesterday, I ran a poll which is kind of following up on that question. If return was a criterion for investing, what was the look-back period investor were most concerned about.

The Options were the same options you can get at ValueResearch since this is one of the biggest sites investors use when researching a fund. While you can also do a point to point comparison, it’s not really simple to measure funds across multiple periods and our brains I doubt are wired to take the “Road not Taken”.

The fact that it’s easy to now get data on what funds are the best performers doesn’t really translate to being better investors. From Survivor bias to Information bias, we fall pretty easily to a lot of biases when looking at data selectively. But given that our options are limited, what we see is what we use to make the choices we make.

Mutual Funds have been in the news like never before but that has also meant that choosing the next big fund is getting near impossible thanks to erosion of competitive advantages the funds enjoyed when they were small.

SEBI’s recent decision to have funds compare performance against Total Returns Index versus the Spot means that almost all funds have suddenly lost a percentage of two of their Alpha.

While advisors preen about how they choose funds taking into account a variety of factors – data seems to suggest that its finally historical returns that can make or break a fund. Of course, even there, funds which don’t pay as much commission as advisors do worse since they are rarely ever advised regardless of performance or other merits.

Take a look at this data chart for example. Among Large Cap funds, excluding Index Funds and ETF’s, AUM is highly concentrated in the top funds. But are current rankings indicative of the funds greatness over time or are they just a random variable that happened to be at the right time and right place?

The best fund among all Large Cap Fund over the last five years is “ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund” but as anyone who has spent any time in the area of Mutual Funds knows, this fund was a Mid Cap fund that has overtime graduated to Large cap and hence the results aren’t really comparable.

The Second best fund is Invesco India Growth Fund. But this fund wasn’t known as Invesco for a long time but was known as Lotus India Growth Fund. In 2008, Religare Mutual Fund acquired Lotus Mutual Fund and this fund became known as Religare India Growth Fund. In 2013, Invesco acquired 49% of Religare Asset Management and the fund was from then known as Religare Invesco India Growth Fund. In 2015, Invesco acquired the stake of Religare and the fund since then is known under its current name.

With Asset Under Management of around 300 Crores, this is one of the smaller funds among the large cap Universe. But if you are looking at performance, the AUM should be the least of the worry. A smaller AUM also provides the fund manager to be flexible compared to large AUM’s though there is no correlation between returns and assets under management.

If you were to just invest in the best fund over the last 5 years, you would have ended up with over 5 funds over the last 7 years, such has been the volatility among the top.

HDFC Top 200 fund which was the Best among Large Cap Funds is now a distant 18. SBI Bluechip fund which was ranked 31^st out of 38 funds in 2010 is now the 3^rd best fund with a huge asset under management to match the upgrade in ranks.

Predictive value of the data is based on how well the data has acted in the past and if the ranking of funds by returns over the last 5 years is anything to go by, this data has very less predictive value than most would assume.

Add to it the fact that 50% of the funds did not beat a simple benchmark like the Nifty 100 TRI, your ability to meet your goals based on assumed returns of these funds will leave a lot to be desired. While active management has worked in India, the odds of funds ability to beat their benchmarks is decreasing by the year. When expectations are set by the historical returns of some of these funds, you are setting up for failure and disappointment right away.

Let Data be your Guide to Investing, not Narrative.

The Rout – What Now?

A few days ago, Larry Williams made a poignant statement

“There is no technical indicator that will call the top based on what little I know about the markets I’ve never found one that can do that.”

Markets after being bullish for so long a time that people forgot that it can also go down once in a way gave way in dramatic fashion post the day of the budget. While the convenient excuse is that the break down was due to introduction of Long Term Capital Gains tax, the fact remains that re-introduction of a tax that has been talked about for quite some time now cannot be enough reason.

To me, the bigger reason is Valuation and the Trigger is not LTCG but Political Uncertainty. Both these factors are enough to damage long term trend but not enough to erase all the gains that have been accrued so far.

This evening I was having a discussion on markets with my good friend, Vijay Sambrani who believes that given the way markets have acted around the 100 EMA in recent times, that would be a good number to watch out for trend reversal.

The chart above is the plot of Nifty 50 with the blue line being indicative of the 100 EMA. 2017 was one of the few years where this would have been a fabulous signal to watch for trend reversal. It currently stands at 10,390 which would require a fall of 370 points before it gets tested.

Markets have been on a roll for quite a long time now. Not since 1990 had we seen a year where markets hadn’t closed below the budget day close for a single day. In 2016 and one again in 2017, we saw markets not closing below the Budget day close for a single day. A kind of record for the ages.

While we Indian’s can blame our government for the correction, a similar strong dip was seen in the US of A. This is a cause of concern since like the Indian Markets, US market too has seen a near 45 Degree slope of rise in markets with very little volatility.

Is this the End

While literally everyone was waiting for a dip to buy as long as the trend was up,the moment it has started down, the question being asked is whether the trend has reversed for good and would be it better to exit completely rather than add to existing position.

In US as in India, Treasury Bond yields are inching up and this will have a impact on the bottom line of companies, especially those that have a overhang of Debt. It also serves as a warning that the market is anticipating a upswing in Inflation which is once again negative.

While yesterday’s fall was huge, from valuation perspective it has barely made a scratch on the surface, let alone a dent as it usually does.

The last proper correction in the Indian Markets started in March 2015 with the final lows seen only in February 2016. While the drop was one of a long duration, the depth wasn’t with the markets dropping just 23% from its peak. Compare this to the fast and furious crash we saw in January 2008 when markets dipped 30% in a span of two weeks.

Corrections are healthy in the sense they remove a lot of dead wood from the market letting it get ready for the next stage. But they are painful for as investors, seeing our wealth vanish day in and day out isn’t a pretty sight no matter if we know that this is temporary and in the long run, our wealth will grow back as markets rebound.

Between 1962 and 1965, the Dow Jones Index nearly doubled in value. This rally was not a one off as markets had steadily climbed from 1942 on-wards and while there were regular doses of correction, the trend of the markets had more or less remained bullish.

10x from the starting point, the markets though finally ground to a halt. Unlike in 2008 when markets crashed in no time at all, this was a slow motion act. While Markets went down and went up over periods of time, it never really breached significantly the highs of 1966. The final break above the high of 1973 (a 4% higher top above the high of 1966) came in late 1982 – a full 16 years from the first major peak.

Indian markets too have seen long period of literal numbness in markets. Take the peak of 1992 – the Harshad Mehta peak. It wasn’t breached 2004 though we did see it being broken in the fag end of the Ketan Parekh peak of 2000. The 2008 to 2014 range is well known.

On the other hand, we have had (in the Dow for instance) crashes like the 1987. It came in the middle of a strong bull rally and while the cut was sharp and deep, markets recovered and moved well above the 1987 peak in early 1991.

From a middle class perspective, the Budget was one of disappointment, investors in markets got skittled by the 10% LTCG that has been re-introduced. Businessmen were literally hauled through the rocks as Demonetization and later the implementation of GST had a impact.

The short term negative impact of GST were well known and given how our skills at execution, it was not much of a surprise to see it being done in a lackadaisical fashion. But the key thing is that this is now done. Another year or so, GST will have ironed out all the issues that currently hamper trade and a few years from today, we shall wonder how we could do business without GST.

World markets are a different animal. After years of easy money, the lightest indication of a reversal in that strategy is sending chill waves throughout the bond world.

Crude Oil which post the Shale Oil episode was never seen as something that will trouble anyone has nearly doubled since the lows of January 2016.

Valuations as measured by Trailing 4 Quarter Standalone earnings did not reach anywhere close to where it went in 2008 or even 2011. While the attraction to the mean is high, that would require a fall of around 26% from here (assuming growth is flat). Not a one day affair but not unlikely either.

Last year saw massive influx of investor money into Mutual Funds as other investing options started to under-perform. Many were drawn by the short term returns that have been generated by funds and will see stress when markets start to react. But not all will run for other options to invest aren’t anyway better than earlier which would mean a lot of money would stay.

A bigger concern would be in Arbitrage funds – these funds which had the tax advantage of Equity while behaving like Debt has lost that Arbitage with the introduction of the 10% tax on Dividends and Capital Gains. Post this move, it makes little sense to stay in those funds for why take a higher risk for returns that are closer to Debt (though they are still a bit tax advantaged).

With 60 thousand Crores under their kitty, we should see some pressure coming in as they will start to cut down their positions in market. Even assuming they come out of just 50% of their positions, that would require absorption of 30 thousand Crores of Delivery. Arbitrage funds being Long Stock, Short Stock on Futures don’t suffer regardless of the movement of the underlying given that they are fully hedged.

What to do Now

Its all easy to talk about the great opportunities one missed out in hindsight, but when the real opportunity comes, there are plenty of reasons not to take the very trade that may in the future seem as an attractive proposition.

No one can say for sure how deep the current draw-down will be before the reversal starts. Until 2008, a 30% drop over a period of 6 months was a usual phenomenon. This changed post the crash of 2008 with the new drops ending around the 20% barrier.

With Fed unwinding its Balance Sheet, it wouldn’t take a Genius to figure out that things may not be the same again. Currently Nifty 50 is just 4% from its all time high and yet we are seeing nearly 50% of stocks trading below their 200 day EMA’s.

The broad market divergence could mean that this is just getting started. Or on the other hand, stocks can go down much lower before we end this round of bearishness.

Lets compare for example, the percentage fall from peaks for stocks currently versus what they had witnessed at the end of the Bear run in 2012

By the time, the bear market got over, a lot of stocks had seen draw-downs from peak of 35 – 55%, a huge difference from the current falls of between 15 – 25%. In other words, there could be a lot more pain if this markets starts to become bearish going further.

The Asset Allocation Model as of end January remains unchanged and while it would start climbing up slowly as market becomes cheaper (due to either fall in the Index or better earnings growth or a combination of the two).

My view is that what we will witness in the Indian Markets will be the equivalent of the 1987 crash in the US. Once the dust settles, this would be seen a opportunity that shouldn’t have been missed. Political Certainty or not, the current reforms will have a impact that will be seen over the next few years regardless of who is in the driving seat. No point getting biased and missing out on yet another opportunity.

Shoot First, Ask Questions Later

It’s probably bit unfair, but at its very core, the thought process that drives momentum is to first shoot, asking questions about the why’s and why not’s come much later.

In my momentum portfolio, I picked up stocks like Graphite / HEG / Rain among others not at the bottom of their cycle but well after they had emerged from their hives. But in doing so, I also picked up companies that didn’t do well and companies that now seem or rather is told to be fraud like Vakrangee.

A question I have been trying to ask myself is whether there was any probability that I could have missed Vakrangee and the answer has been the same – No way. No based on momentum, the quality of momentum or even a cursory look at the financials.

What will save me though is that its allocation is low (1 out of 30 stocks) and fact that I got onto it much earlier (even post the fall, I am still up 50% on the stock). Someone who started his PF say a month ago may not be so lucky, but I would assume that since he would have not punted a big part of his PF on Momentum (as % of his Liquid Networth), he despite the bloodbath we may see going forward will and can absorb the hit.

Those in the world of value investing wouldn’t fall for stocks like Vakrangee (since on most of their parameters it would be obscenely overvalued, not to speak of other things) but would get caught in stocks that on appear to be superior businesses and yet market either doesn’t recognize the same or worse.

The risk of a concentrated portfolio is similar for both a Momentum Investor and a Value Investor. The only advantage for the Momentum Investor would lie in the fact that he knowing nothing about the company could exit a stock well before the rats start to abandon the ship. A investor who believes he knows a lot about the company on the other hand will spend his time accumulating the stock even as it goes down.

The biggest advantage there is for the momentum investor is that he can get out fast for he knows nothing about the company that should make him stick. Then again, as I am experiencing currently in Vakrangee, the bias of seeing profits made me sit tight when I should have been the first to abandon ship (a secondary reason is that my system is monthly rotation and the feel is not to do anything intra-month as far as possible).

For me, the biggest learning lesson from stocks like Vakrangee (if they continue to fall) is that not every stock will go through a phase of accumulation – mark-up – distribution. It can also easily be a blow-off top pattern where exit has to made without waiting for the systems to catch up.

Discretion of that kind opens its own pandora’s box. Then again, if answers were easy, why would making money in markets be so hard.

Are you Ready

Around Nine months back, Morgan Housel wrote in his blog

“Three types of businesses: Solve a customer’s problem, scratch a customer’s itch, exploit a customer’s vulnerability”

Solving a customer’s problem is what all claim to do – but solving problems are hard and messy and time consuming.

Scratching a customer’s itch is much more easier compared to solving his problem.

In the Movie “Flight”, Whip Whitaker played by Denzel Washington is at a Bar where he (trying to avoid Alcohol) asks for an Orange Juice. The Bartender provides him the Orange Juice and asks, anything else. Whip then asks for an Alcoholic Drink.

In a way, we have way too many Bar Tenders who try to provide services that scratch a customer’s itch and from there it’s a short ride to exploiting his vulnerability.

We all crave for excitement and if excitement can come with ability earn more than what our peers can, what is the problem is the mind-set of many an investor.

Real Estate has been an asset class for long and yet it wasn’t crazy as it became in years between 2005 and 2014 as prices went ballistic with no relationship to any metric. Add leverage to the mix and it was a bloody good cocktail for those who were able to ride.

Our fascination with Gold is Centuries old and while there was a strong inclination to break the bank and invest in gold as it nearly quadrupled in 2005 and 2011, it never approached the kind of frenzy we saw in Real Estate for there was no leverage that was available easily for retail investors and the risk of physical gold is always there.

With neither Gold nor Real Estate delivering superlative returns and Interest rates on a downturn, the only way out of the mess was to get into Equities for haven’t they always outperformed every other asset class?

Direct equity investments are seen as scary but go through a Mutual Fund and magically the risk seemingly vanishes or so we are told.

Over time, Mutual Funds have indeed delivered superlative returns. The Median 10 year return (with starting point being just below the 2008 peak) is around 11.28%. Compare this versus the median return of Debt funds (excluding Liquid / Short Term) and add the fact that we took the market extreme for our starting point and you know why Equities is still the better asset class out there.

But the big picture misses out on several small and yet important things that happened through those years including the fact that the best fund on 10 year basis today was once down 70% from its peak.

Imagine for a moment the Plot of Land you bought at 1 Crore now getting sold at 30 Lakhs. You may stay and hope that the future gets better but the pain till it reaches your entry price is unbearable and then the fear once it crosses your entry price about whether you will get hit once more with such a draw-down.

Money is getting invested in markets at a unprecedented level. This has as Warren Buffett once said has led to all ships rising in the tide.

Stocks which in my limited understanding of finance have little or no future are being gobbled up by retail investors following strategies they barely understand let alone has stood the test of time (in reality not a back-test).

Momentum is a wonderful strategy when properly applied. But like in software, Garbage in = Garbage Out. In the fag end of bull markets, every tom dick and harry stocks will show momentum. Getting into those stocks is easy and for a while you may actually even make money but rest assured, when the swing comes down, the exit door will be too crowded for you to exit without getting burnt.

It’s easy to visualize that we are different and have learnt from history and will not like other times panic and remove investments. If only for we are only Human.

India is supposed to out grow even China in the years to come and I am not talking about population but the road that China followed for its growth is no longer available for we to take advantage of.

Automation / Competitive Tax Policies among others are driving whatever left of jobs in manufacturing out. 10 years from now, it’s a way different world than what we can visualize now for changes are happening at a rapid pace.

With companies in the Infotech space for example reducing the intake of new employees, the only avenues of job these days seems to be in the service sector with low paid salaries and dead end career’s.

When you buy a company that is selling for 40 / 50 times it earnings just because we have potential, do you also consider how such potential can become undone?

A market like Life is cyclic. Some cycles are long some are short but the one thing that remains a constant is that every cycle ends. Are you prepared for that eventuality?

Choose your Battles

All Roads Lead to Rome is an old saying and in the financial markets all strategies are supposed to lead to the same result – Profits for the Investment (in time and money).

But not all strategies are created equal – what works good at one point of time may not be the best of the time for another strategy.

Don’t catch a falling knife is a valid advice for a momentum investor but a value investor thrives in such scenarios.

Value Investors scoff from buying companies that are seemingly no good on paper and yet get high valuations. Investors of Venture Capital Funds on the other hand love investing in companies only on the gut feel that this could be a game changer decades on even though today its shitty than anything available in the public markets.

Day Traders thrive in volatile markets when the rest of the participants are losing their minds but lose theirs when the market is calm with nothing much to do.

In the movie Avatar, Zoe Saldana who plays the role of Neytiri says to Sam Worthington playing the role of Jake Sully and I Quote “To become “taronyu” hunter, you must choose your own Ikran and he must choose you.”

Similarly for the markets – the ability to succeed only comes if you and method you choose are able to gel together.

I understand fundamentals but never can become a value based investor for my mind always wonders, do I really know all that I need to know. Quants appeal to me by helping me showcase historical instances when it succeeded and failed enabling me to quantify.

One doesn’t become a value investor by reading Buffett or Munger as he wouldn’t become a politician by reading the biographies of successful politicians. The roads they took are different from the roads you shall face. But if you need to start off somewhere, that is a good place to start.

In Facebook, everyone has the perfect life. On Twitter, everyone is an expert in everything. People who may not in real life have invested even 10% of their Networth in Equities can be seen as successful investors by creating a mirage.

Everyone has their own favourite views about the market. Some are perma bulls who see no risks at all while others who are bunched as perma bears see nothing but risks all around. Yet as its most likely the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

Success in markets is fleeting regardless of how high one went at one point of time. John Paulson, a hedge fund manager had his day in the sun when he made it big shorting the housing market in 2007 and then reaping it big. Today, he is having a tough time holding onto his clients as clients have rapidly left what is now seen as a leaky boat.

Quantum Long Term Equity fund, a fund I like and where we have a small amount of money invested is ranked the best among large cap funds on a 10 year period. But drill it down to 1 year and the picture changes entirely. It’s so close to the bottom that one wonders if they have lost the mojo.

While theoretically we should behave as our own fund managers, it’s tough to emulate them when the going gets tougher. If you believe you shall panic when the chips are down, your strategy should be different than one you would wish to follow for the chain is only as strong as the weakest link and here the weakest link is ourselves.

Success can mean different things for different people, in the financial markets, to me they mean being able to stay the course for the longest period of time even if I don’t come anywhere close to the winners.

Rolling into 2018

There is a lot of contradictory advise that keeps floating in the world of finance. One is told that rather than aim for higher returns, one should save more. Of course, saving more isn’t enough, is it, once you save, you need to deploy it intelligently to get a better return.

Regardless of your risk temperament or requirement, it’s Equity you are told that you should invest in for better returns. While it’s indeed true that Equity has provided better returns, this hasn’t been for everyone.

Markets have been at its best this year and yet this is not the Best year in our short history. This year doesn’t even figure in the top 10 yearly gains, so why all the hullaboo?

The answer to that question lies in the broadness of this year’s rally. 84% of listed stocks on the NSE closed on Positive Territory, 73% of stocks on the NSE closed above their 200 day EMA. Save for Nifty Pharma, every other Index closed the year on a positive note.

Mutual Fund AUM increased by nearly 40% as extraordinary gains (compared to other asset classes) helped mobilize funds on a unprecedented level. Investments through monthly instalments (also known and referred to as SIP) now account for nearly 6000 Crore of fresh inflows every month.

Nifty Trailing four quarter Price to Earning Ratio is now closing on its all time high. While this is seen as Bearish, the anticipation that has been running for a long time now is that at some point we shall see growth return and hence this is a temporary phase. Also, make hay while the sun shines.

While Real Estate is still in the doldrums, stocks of the sector have made a comeback. Nifty Reality Index doubled over the course of the year recording its best ever move. Gold, the other major asset class in India closed more or less flat.

Interest rates which were on a rapid slide for many years across the world made a comeback of sorts with every country witnessing rise in yields. Based on one’s bias, this can be used to justify both higher and lower valuations.

Bitcoin, a crypto currency took the world by storm as it logged in unprecedented gains. What was supposed to be an alternative to Gold / Fiat money suddenly became the most speculative asset to trade in.

Despite all this, there is palpable fear in the air. From Individual Investors to Mutual Fund Managers, this fear has meant a rise in Cash holding. Quantum Long Term Fund, a fund that is one of the best in its class (over a 10 year period) was literally at the bottom thanks in no large part to missing out on the rally with a large chunk of its assets in cash.

Pharma and FMCG are seen as Defensive bets which generally underperform in strong bull markets. Not this time around. While Pharma Index recorded it second consecutive loss for the year, FMCG Index continued its winning streak as it shot up another 29% to record its 9^th successive year of gains.

Rising Valuation meant that the Portfolio Yoga Asset Allocator kept dropping its exposure to Equity. Only time can tell whether this was a prudent move or one of foolishness. Personally, I intend to be 40% invested with additional investments flowing in if and when opportunities arise.

Where do we go from here on is a million dollar question. Strong momentum doesn’t end without there being a major negative trigger or a long period of consolidation. Foreign Institutional Investors who were once the key element of market cycles no more hold that power.

FII’s turned out to be Net Sellers in the Secondary markets in 10 out of the 12 months. While they did pump in money elsewhere, secondary market is where the real action is and this sign of lac of confidence could have had a major jarring impact if not for the huge flow of money from local institutions which more or less overwhelmed their selling.

A major signature of market tops is higher level of activity in the Merger and Acquisition space. In India, despite the markets being bullish like never before, most M&A’s that took place were one under duress.

Long term impact of GST and Make in India, both of which are supposed to be strongly positive for the Industry and Markets is yet to be known, but on the short term, Industry seems to have accepted the pain that has come with GST and Rupee Demonetization and it’s unlikely to have a big impact going into the future.

2018 will see three large states go into elections and the result of these shall have a bearing on the national elections since the current government had won out of out in two of the three states in the National Elections held in 2014.

This Governments full last budget will be the one that is presented on 1^st of February and can have a major impact. With the United States deciding on a path to cut Corporate Taxes from 35% to 21%, this will have an enormous impact on countries across the world as they scramble to ensure that they don’t become tax disadvantaged.

For the risk taker, opportunities are always around the corner. It’s up to one to decide whether one wishes to take that risk or flow with the herd. The advantage of being with the herd is the satisfaction that when things go wrong, one is not the only one.

Years come and go, but what doesn’t change much is how we approach investing. You need to either save more by not living the kind of life you wish to live or take chances. If only there was an easier middle path.

Wishing you a Happy New Year.

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Is this the End

What to do Now

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