Here is what happened in 2016

Year end posts are obligatory in nature. So, this is a list of stocks that went up, this is another list that went down and hey, this what I think will happen in the coming year.

Yet, if you really dig the data you can find some interesting facets that may have been easy to miss otherwise. 2016 was literally another dud year, the 2nd in the row. Yes, we did have some great moves and huge volatility, but we are still where we were at the beginning of September 2014 and surprisingly despite the passage of time, we aren’t any cheaper than we were at that point of time. Says something, ain’t it?

Lets start of with the percentage move plotted in a distribution style chart.

While the year may have been flat, we have had a lot of stocks that doubled or more. If you were invested in such stocks, 2016 would have been a awesome year for sure. For others (and that would include me), better luck next time, eh 🙂

The biggest gainers, gains > 100% were mostly mid and small caps with very few of them starting out at 100 Rupee or more.  Sugar sector had a awesome year with the equal weighted index rising as much as 74%  and hence its no surprise to see many a stock related to Sugar at the top of that list.

On the negative side, ignoring the random names of small cap stocks that are on the route to oblivion, the biggest disappointments would Tree House, RCom and Just Dial. And then there are stocks whose charts suggest a clear cut pattern of pump and dump, Global Offshore for instance

But overall, with 48% of stocks ending in positive territory, it isn’t so bad either. And before we move on, here is the list of the Best and Worst 25 stocks

 

Stock picking is tough in the best of times and even though the current year hasn’t been bad, anyone (and there are literally thousands of investors) who are holding stocks that literally bled to death this year are unlikely to believe that Equities are the best way to invest for a secure future.

Yes, the hope is to catch as many of the Green ones as possible, but how many do you really have the expertise to catch and a bigger question, will you know how long you need to hold it?

Global Offshore for example went up from 50’s to 800’s and yet some one who bought with intention of sitting tight would have seen all his gains withered off.

On the other stocks like Mandhana after having literally no returns over the last few years finally gave way as it fell 80% from its peak.

 

 

 

ETF’s are still a nascent product in India though with the arrival of Robo Advisory and investment by EPFO into ETF’s, hopefully going forward we should see more momentum .

Almost all ETF’s ended in the Green with the only exception being the Infra ETF.

While not all sector index are available, with new launches we are seeing quite a few options other than Gold and Nifty which still constitute the maximum number.

 

 

 

 

 

With mainline indices being flat for the year, the Top winners and losers among Mutual funds were dominated by Sector funds.

DSP had a good year with 3 of its funds being among the top winners though it also holds the ignomity of having a IT fund that lost a great deal more than both  the Nifty IT Index (its benchmark) as we as its peers.

 

For the Second year running, FII’s continued to be Net Sellers and like last year, the only solace and what maybe saved the markets from having a much rough year was the steady stream of investments coming in from local funds (read Mutual Funds) which thanks to the weakness in Real Estate, Falling Interest rates and good advertising has been able to rake in much higher amounts than it used to.

But with there being a very high correlation between Nifty and FII investments, its essential that they start trusting the markets with their money if we were to have a bullish year like the ones we saw in 2012 or 2014.

 

Internationally, were were more or less on in the middle with neither we being great performers nor being the dogs of the year.

Since the table uses local currency to measure the gains, any gains accruing due to depreciation alone gets counted when its essentially just adjustment (Example: FTSE 100)

 

 

 

And finally, Nifty Sector / Thematic Index returns over the years. I have broken it into 2 pictures. One with at least 10 years of data and in the other you shall find all Indices with their returns over the last 5 years.

And finally, the best and the worst performing Indices over the years. Here is the interesting thing in this data set. In the winners, you can find Nifty Metals represented three times and yet if you were to measure the returns over the last 10 years, its a pittance to say the least. Once again, blind buy and hold doesn’t work other than in hind sight and with money you really have no requirement for

Nifty Pharma had one of its worst years since 2008 and while its still not yet very cheap, I see it getting (stockwise) to that zone from where you could see it bounce back providing decent returns at the very least.

So, here is me hoping that 2017 bring out the best of opportunities for us.