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Warren Buffett | Portfolio Yoga

Promoters and Lifestyles

While Indian stock markets are said to be on the largest (in terms of listed securities) exchanges of the world, when it comes to Mergers & Acquisitions, especially of publicly listed firms, we really pale to a non significant ranking. And if you were to search for hostile acquisitions, there is very little of that happening on Indian markets. The last famous hostile battle was to try and takeover GT Offshore.

“Taking over a company (in India) has become even more difficult … every time if one has to waste years in court, it’s not worth it (a take-over bid),” said Lord Paul who attempted some high profile takeovers in 1982. While he exited in profit, the fact that he had to take the companies to court to get his shares registered says a lot about the pain quotient in taking over publicly listed firms.

The fact that its tough to acquire companies has made promoters to worry less about the risk of being thrown out even if they run the company to ground trying to boost their ego even if they don’t own 51% of the company. And if you own 51% or 74%, you can treat the company as your own piggy bank with none to bother.

Motor Cars are a depreciating asset and hence when you buy them personally, you suffer the depreciation. But what if the same could be routed out via your company. You get the same car while the company pays off the cost of acquiring and sets if off against its balance sheet.

Now, companies are free to spend the money the way they want but when promoters start to use them for their personal needs, one really wonders where the line ends between the company’s real needs and the promoters own needs.

If I own 100% of my company, I can do as I please since end of the day, its my own money at stake. But what if I run a publicly listed firm where at least 25% (SEBI minimum) of shareholding is held by the public. Treat them with the contempt they deserve to have trusted me in the first place?

A long time ago, a flashy promoter bought a private jet for his personal use using funds from a US listed (where he owned a majority stake I believe) firm. All hell got raised and he was forced to act. The promoter therefore simply sold off the plane to his Indian firm (where again, being listed was not 100% his own) and that matter died a natural death.

Media tags promoters with tags like Visionary or frauds / charlatans. Most of the time, its based on outcomes rather than the process itself. If a promoter takes enormous risks and succeeds, he is a Visionary, if he fails, it was because he was either stupid or there is more to it than visible to the eye.

The idea for this particular post came from friend Anand Mohan who runs equitybulls.com. (A disclaimer though, he also holds a stake in the company and hence can be treated as being interested). He posted a pic of the depreciation table of a small listed company. The company as on date has a market cap of 6.65 Crores and a Enterprise Value of 8.16 Crores. Promoters hold 74.43% of the company shares.

In the Financial Year 2014 – 15, they had a Profit after Interest but before Depreciation of 1.13 Crores. But then there is the depreciation which came to 94 Lakhs which literally ate away all that the company made that year. So, the question is, what kind of assets does the company hold that ensures that all it earns is literally wasted away in depreciation.

Here is the Fixed Assets statement. Apologies for the low quality of the pic, but it seems that the company has in order to save money, stitched up pictures taken from what seems like a low end camera.

Chart

The biggest number out here is for Plants and Machinery which is acceptable given that Plants and Machinery constitute the very basis for the company’s existence. Second biggest item though is Motor Car. The total amount invested into Motor Cars before this year was 2.16 Crores and this year they seems to have added 38.46 Lakhs worth more.

In other words, 23.50% of the company’s depreciation is due to Motor Cars which most likely are for personal usage rather than being for running the business of the firm. While 38 Lakhs in itself may not appear big, do consider that the Net Profit of the firm comes to just 8.89 Lakhs for the whole financial year. In other words, they spend around 4x what the company made.

Of course, this is one such company and I am sure that there are dime a dozen companies where the promoters milk the company in every way possible.

A famous quote of Warren Buffet is

“When we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favorite holding period is forever.”

Most investors unfortunately get sidelined by the management even in outstanding business as promoters lifestyle requirements takes a more prominent place. Since hostile take overs cannot even be effected, there is no exit route other than to give up on the company’s shares since its rare as they say “A leopard can’t change its spots”.

 

Blood on the Street

The low risk opportunity arises when the herd is full of fear and hence valuations are cheap. Of course, the fear based opportunities for the market as a whole do not happen regularly nor is it possible to wait endless for it. But while entire market may not be available for cheap, impact of news can mean that some sectors are available cheap even when the rest of the market is expensive.

Before I continue, the following quotes from legends is a apt read;

“The time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets.” – Baron Rothschild

“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful” – Warren Buffett

In the current market, while good stocks are becoming expensive (some crazily expensive), there is a sector that is not only cheap but becoming cheaper by the day. The sector I am talking about is the Exploration & Production of Crude Oil. In India, the major listed companies in that sector are

1. Oil And Natural Gas Corporation
2. Cairn India Ltd
3. Oil India Ltd
4. Aban Offshore Ltd
5. Selan Exploration Technology Ltd

Of the above, I would straightaway exclude ONGC and Oil India due to my personal dislike of Public Sector Units. Aban gets excluded since its

1. A company that is into leasing drills rather than being direct oil producer
2. Its debt is pretty high and its debt is nearly 5 times its current market capitalization. High leverage companies are the first to go bust when the climate changes and Aban seems to carry that risk.

That leaves two companies that are into crude oil production and carry zero debt on their books. The falling price of crude is guaranteed to have a direct impact on the profits and hence its no wonder that the stock prices are way down from their all time highs.

But the question to be asked is,

i) At what price would one start to find it valuable given the fact that both these companies will continue to earn profits (though lower) and with no debts to pay off, everything is going to do straight to the bottom line.

ii) While we are said to have seen a decline in consumption, with no other viable energy sources, its doubful that Crude shall go out of fashion.

Yesterday, I was reading a report that said Russia is likely to consider cutting back on production since with prices on a free fall, the probability of many fields ever being able to make money will be low to zero. In fact, one of the reasons Saudi is said to be not intervening is that it wants to bankrupt Shale Oil producers since they have a higher cost of production and hence cannot continue to keep producing even when it seems non viable.

In fact we have already seen bond yields of small shale oil firms jump up on anticipation that many will not be able to repay back the bonds when it comes for redemption.

The historical chart of Crude suggests lengthy bear markets and shallower bull markets. If that pattern holds true in future as well, the current fall is just the start of a long bear market and wherein opportunities will be many.

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Purely based on charts, I see no reason to try and catch the falling knife. Instead, I would rather wait for a entry based on say a cross above the 200 day EMA. While that would take place well above the lows we would have seen, it would provide one with a low risk entry with exit (in case it does not work as expected) being pretty close.

For now though, its a wait and watch since the jury is still out as to how long this bear phase shall last. There is no reason to rush through and pick the dip since if as the historical chart shows anything, it is that there will be plenty of time before this is over.