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For a trader, its essential that any strategy he uses needs to at least in historical testing beat Buy & Hold returns (and since we assume a lot in our back-tests, higher the returns compared to B&H, the better). After all, the argument here is simple. If you spend time and effort in markets, the least you should be expected...
Technical Analysis is a nice punching bowl for most seasoned analysts and fund managers. Howard Marks in his book, “The Most Important Thing” suggests that its not a worthwhile strategy in not more than 300 words. I myself despite being a follower of Technical Analysis for quite some time do not take at face value all the bull shit that...
We are all familiar with Notional Loss and Permanent Loss but what about Opportunity Loss (Cost). Compared to the other two, this is not painful since Ignorance is Bliss. But then again, while the other two losses are something that has occurred due to action, opportunity cost is one which takes place due to inaction. For Investors, the cost of...
Nassim Taleb describes a black swan as : A BLAC K SWA N is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Lets look at Oil and check whether it fits the...
Depending on how you use it, Twitter can be Good / Bad or Ugly. For me, it has been an interesting minefield of information on a variety of subjects that hold my interest. One of things I keep stumbling about is when a guy says, ABC share has returned 5X returns in Y years. A secondary thing I keep hearing...
Pundits (be on Television or Newspaper) have a way to rationalize everything that happens. Every market move is due to some or the other news. When markets are bullish, all reasons are bullish in nature and even those that aren’t turned around to mean as such. So, if the markets are up despite there being a bad IIP nos, its...
Most of the top investors subscribe in one way or the other to the Charlie Munger concept of investing in stocks that one can understand. Of course, its quite another thing that most of us have literally no clue regarding how a company makes profits (other than that its products are popular and hence its making profits). Lets take a...
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