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Uncategorized | Portfolio Yoga - Part 25

Category: Uncategorized

Stock of the Day – Heritage Foods

Heritage Foods is one of the few listed stocks exclusively focused on dairy though in recent times they have ventured into food and grocery retailing under the brand “Heritage Fresh” as well. The stock saw a major re-rating in mid June 2012 when it started to move higher and tripled in price by the end of 2012. 2013 was a year of consolidation for the stock as it slid down in a broad channel formation. January has been a good follow up month after the rise we saw in December and with today’s rise, we are once again testing the upper trend line of the channel. 

A break-out above the channel can provide for a move of at least 75 rupees which is the width of the channel though a reversal here may see it go back to its support level of 200 EMA at the very least.

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Stock of the day – Jindal Saw

Jindal Saw like many other metal counters has been facing rough weather for a pretty long period now. After topping out in late 2010 at 235, the stock had lost nearly 85% of its value when it bottomed out in August 2013. The stock had been more or range bound till this month when in line with the moves seen in many mid and small cap stocks, Jindal Saw too has appreciated by around 22% till date.

Today’s close is just below its 200 day EMA which would be the first barrier to cross. As the chart below shows, this is just the first in a series of hurdles it has to cross before we can say its clearly out of the woods (Bearish to Bullish phase change).

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Stock of the Day – Financial Technologies

Financial Technologies, a stock which was a favorite of investors has long lost its appeal among investors with the stock long before the National Spot Exchange drama unfolded. But with there being talk of restructuring of both FT and MCX being in the news, the stock has catapulted in recent days with the stock showing a gain of 77% in this month alone.

While the rise appears astronomical, when one looks at the longer term charts, the move is nowhere as spectacular with there being a lot of area to cover.

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Stock of the Day – West Coast Paper

On a dull day, West Coast Paper mills took off as a sprinter would do on the athletic field gaining the maximum 20% allowed for the day. On the daily charts, we can see that the stock has moved above the 200 day EMA with today’s move which was accompanied by huge delivery volumes as well.

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While on the surface it appears to be a strong breakout, one needs to be wary due to the multiple number of resistances it has to cross before it reaches un-chartered territory. In fact, the stock is available even after accounting for today’s rise at the same price as it was available in Mid 2006, talk about value destruction that the stock has seen for a long term Buy & Hope investor [ assuming that he did not turn a trader who sold high and bought it back low as many investors claim to do 🙂 ] 

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Performance of Markets in the months prior to National Elections (India)

With Elections due in May (unless early elections are called for), I look at how the markets have behaved prior to previous elections. Have used BSE Sensex returns for the computation. Election month performance is the performance of the market during the month of the election (results may or may not have been out in the same month).

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Stock of the Day – Tata Power

Tata Power which is part of the CNX Energy index has not been having the best of times. The stock declined by around 17% in the year 2013 even as CNX Energy index more or less closed flat. 2014 has started off extremely bad for the stock with it losing 17% within the first 7 days of this year.

In December, the stock had broken above the Top Horizontal Line of the Ascending Triangle formation. Unfortunately the stock could never take off and with today break of the trend-line, the whole pattern stands invalidated. 

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Arvind Mills – On a roll

The stock of Arvind Mills has been on a roll for the last few months and with today’s move, we have broken above the highs of 2005. Unlike many stocks which topped out in 2008, Arvind topped way before time in 2005 itself 0 talk about early bird catching the worm 🙂 

There is not much of any favorable news which is in the public domain which seems to suggest that whatever is driving the stock could be something for which we are yet to receive a memo. For the moment though, trend is very strong with the next big resistance being its all time high of 230 (a move of around 50% being required from current levels to test that).

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